I read recently that 16% of ancient Rome’s wealth, built on the backs of its slaves and plebes, was controlled by 1% of its population—this at the height of the Empire in 150 CE. The Roman state—city-state, kingdom, republic and empire—lasted about 1200 years; a pretty good run.
35% of US wealth is now in the hands of 1% of its people. What does this portend for the future? Is economic inequity quantifiable as a dynamic and if so, what does it tell us of the historical relationship between the increasing misery of the many, the swelling affluence of the few and social upheaval? What’s the tipping point? Give me numbers!
I searched and found the Big Creeping Gini.
The Gini coefficient measures income inequality. At Gini 100, one person controls 100% of the wealth. (As happens within some families.
) At a Gini of 0%, wealth is evenly distributed. (Sweden’s Gini is about .023.) The higher the number, the more unstable the society.
Creeping social destabilization can be measured by the upward movement of the Gini. The tripwire seems to be in the 50’s:
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US, 1968: 38.6 (Not so bad)
- Rome, 150CE: 44 (Rome had another 260 years)
- US, 2010: 46.9* (Oh my)
- France, 1780s: 54.6 (Eeew)
- 1789: the Bastille is stormed (Tumbrels & heads rolled)
[This] led me [to] reflection on that unequal division of property which occasions the numberless instances of wretchedness which I had observed in this country…The property of this country is absolutely concentred in a very few hands…These employ the flower of the country as servants, some of them having as many as 200 domestics… They employ also a great number of manufacturers and tradesmen, and lastly the class of laboring husbandmen. But after all there comes the most numerous of all classes, that is, the poor who cannot find work. Thomas Jefferson, letter from France, 1785
Big Creeping Gini
July 27th, 2012 on 4:43 pm
I thinks last years riots in London and the occupy movement albeit quiet at the moment are the first stirrings of the 'new revolt'
July 31st, 2012 on 12:38 pm
Agreed, Tom. I know a few young adults who found the Occupy Movement too wimpy. They quietly network and read Machiavelli, Plato, neo-Marxists and US Army field manuals on guerrilla warfare, books they find mouldering around the homes of aged veterans. (My favorite old Army field manual is “Utilization of the Carrier Pigeon at the Battalion Level.”)
Cheers,
Steve
December 27th, 2012 on 3:30 am
Steve
I had a rather heated discussion yesterday regarding the increasing wealth of a few. I made the point that there comes a time when the masses say enough is enough and thus rebellion. I gave the analogy of the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution. It was this discussion would lead me to investigate whether there was some formula that can predict this tipping point .I subsequently came across your article "the creeping gini". I was wondering if you had a gini for Russia in 1916/17. An excellent article and thanks
February 25th, 2013 on 1:15 am
Apologies for the long dead silence, Mike: the blogbot’s supposed to email me when there’s a comment but it didn’t.
Glad you enjoyed the post. Gini for Russia: I don’t have one, but perhaps there’s one or more possibly competing Gini’s Out There for it?
Belated thanks for the kind words.
Cheers,
Steve